Once again, I’m answering the age-old question of “How is the market?” based on the stats, data and my personal analysis from the real estate activities that occurred in and around Calgary in November 2020.
First, we’ll look at “The Sales Summary”, “The Inventory Story” and “The Pricing Picture”. Then I’ll wrap it all together and provide you with direction, whether you are buying or selling.
THE SALES SUMMARY
We had another blow-out month in November, especially given that we were in the second last month of the year. In November, 1437 were recorded sales within the city limits. This was up 25% over the same period last year, when we only recorded 1146 sales. That’s a significant improvement.
Putting this into perspective, this is nearly as strong as the first month of last year’s spring market in April 2019. Spring is where we always see excitement and an increase in sales activity and these numbers are great news for this late in the year.
November’s Sales per Day graph shows you the consistency that we achieved in the month.
This is really quite impressive as we normally start to see activity taper off at this time of year. This second graph shows the Sales per Week vs November of 2019.
You’ll see that we were significantly ahead for basically all parts of the month. And the gap even grew into the back half of our month. This sets us up to believe December will continue along the same trend.
Furthering that positive news, check out the Showings chart (below) that displays the pace of showings versus the same period last year.
What you will notice is that we are still significantly ahead. 161% ahead, to be exact! This is the largest year-over-year gap we’ve seen this year.
Out of curiosity I pulled up the graph for North America to see how we are doing in comparison to other markets. What you’ll notice is that showings in other markets have started to taper much more than ours. This is very interesting to see, and even a bit inspiring given that the Calgary market has been under-performing for several years now. Now, each market segment acts differently, but this month the common thread was that all 4 market types saw an increase. Even our recently dreary Apartment one.
Here are the year-over-year numbers:
Detached Homes: 25% Our biggest market continues its strong momentum.
Semi-Detached: 50% Our highest performer by far!
Apartments: 12% Apartments have come from a negative position and turned the corner dramatically this past month.
Row/Townhouses: 24% Following the trend of detached homes right now.
If you are concerned about how your actual price range is performing in your specific market segment, just message us so we can provide you with specific advice about your particular situation.
THE INVENTORY STORY
Let me start by pulling up a graph that paints the picture of what occurred last month. As you will see, the number of new listings coming to the market decreased consistently throughout the month.
In this second graph you’ll see how that played out in terms of Active Inventory vs. 2019. It also declined nicely.
And then in this third graph you will see the Actual Inventory, day-by-day, as we went through the month.
Throughout the month we saw our active inventory count start at 5,833 and end at 5,028. That is a significant one-month drop. We expect this at this time of year, and we further expect this to continue in December where we always hit our absolute lowest inventory levels for the year.
In summary, we saw 6.7% less new inventory come to market and our current active
inventory is sitting 16% lower than at this point last year.
And all 4 property types saw their total inventory fall further from last year’s numbers, too. The two lowest inventory markets are Detached, sitting at 25% less, and Semi-Detached at 32% less. Even though Apartments saw a drop, we are still sitting with 6% more than last year at the same time.
THE PRICING PICTURE
With all the positive signs discussed in THE SALES SUMMARY & THE INVENTORY STORY you’d expect that our Pricing Picture fared reasonably well…
And it did.
For the 6th straight month we’ve seen the city-wide overall benchmark price increase. It currently sits at $423,600, a 1.6% increase year-over-year.
The following graph shows the additional breakdown and benchmark prices across Calgary’s 8 districts.
With this, and all things I’ve already discussed today, I believe we find ourselves in an optimistic position that
this continuing pandemic is not putting further downward pressure on our housing market.
It’s certainly good news, as many of us – if I polled you in March about the state of our market at the end of year – would not have provided this guess.
ADVICE FOR BUYERS AND SELLERS
When I answer the “How’s the market” question, it’s one thing to discuss all the stats and data as I’ve done earlier in this report, but what I find more impactful is discussing the true pace of our market.
The pace is the true indicator of how well things are doing and it takes into account all of sales, inventory and price results. I look at pace in a few ways – “Months of Supply” along with “Sales-to-Listing Ratio”.
First, I’ll share with you our Sales-to-Listing Ratio graph.
This graph shows the ratio going back week by week to the middle of May (right as we started to emerge from lockdown). As you can see, the Average Sales-per-Day Ratio has climbed ever since. Which simply
means that a larger amount of the homes being listed are being sold. Or, in other words, a higher listing absorption rate.
Higher Rates = Good News for the market.
Higher Rates = Properties are coming on and coming off faster.
Higher Rates = The Pace has increased.
This is represented by our DAYS ON MARKET adjustments that we’ve seen.
As we finished the month of November, our total DAYS ON MARKET dropped 14% over last year at the same time. And we have seen a DOM decline in all 4 of our market types. Again… Days on Market getting faster and the Pace of the market improving = A Healthier Market as a whole.
Now, take a look at this MONTHS OF SUPPLY graph.
As the months of supply decreases, it shows the pace of our market is increasing.
This metric says it would take X (the number represented on the left vertical on the graph) amount of months to sell through the whole inventory, assuming the number of current sales continues.
As we finished the month of November 2020, our total months of supply was 3.5. In contrast, at this same time last year, the months of supply number was 5.2. So, that is a significant change for the better.
So, for those of you in the market – buying or selling – make note of this.
BUYERS
As we enter December and push through January we will see another significant drop-off in inventory because that’s just what sellers do at this time of year, and also because the demand remains very high in comparison to the usual seasonal trends.
So be prepared to butt up against others in your pursuit of your next home. Don’t worry that you’ll be over-paying – the market ain’t hot like that. But pay what you need to if the right one comes along.
SELLERS
If you are priced well right now, you will move your property! Especially in the semi-detached market, detached market and row homes. But don’t, don’t, don’t get greedy. The market is good, but only in relation to how rough it’s been. It’s not “good” in comparison to almost all other markets across Nth America.
Apartment sellers, despite having a great month, will need many more such good months before the pace starts to turn in your favour.
Well, that’s about it. Thank you for your attention and spending this time with me again this month. I really do put a lot of energy into making this the best market update in our city.
Thanks again, have a Merry Christmas, and I look forward to reporting to you again in the new year!
