“Mind boggling” comes to mind when talking about this September’s real estate in and around Calgary. It was certainly a “September to remember”!

THE SALES SUMMARY

The real estate market in the Calgary region was on fire again last month! We just completed our 2nd best September of all time! Only 2005 had a stronger September than we just had.

We finished with 2,162 sales for the month, which was 11 more homes than we did in August. That was a 27% increase from last year, and an even bigger jump from 2018 & 2019.

Here is the Calgary Real Estate Board graph showcasing the last 15 years. Here you will see just how extreme this September was when doing a broader comparison. Wow! Just… wow!

This resulted in another continued Sales-per-Day pace above 70, a pace that hasn’t slowed at all since early July. In fact, it increased slightly here in September to 72.

This next graph shows the Year-to-Date Sales we’ve achieved throughout all of 2021.

Once again you’ll notice how incredible 2021 has been in relation to nearly everything in recent memory. The only year in the last 10 with more YTD total sales was 2014.

Now, all property types are acting a little differently, but all are positive.

Detached & Row Home sales increased nearly 20% over last year.

Semi-Detached Homes had a 37% improvement.

And the best improvement year-over-year in September was the Apartment segment, which saw a 51% increase in its sales.

Calgary again recorded three quarters of the overall sales in our region, so let’s now look at what happened in other major markets:

Airdrie achieved 166 sales, a small drop from last month, which was about the same as last year.

Cochrane had 97 sales, which is an increase from last month and a big 37% bump from 2020.

Chestermere had 45 sales and an increase of 22% over last year.

And Okotoks had 54 sales, which is actually a drop of 11% from 2020.

As you go from region to region you will find they are all performing very differently in terms of sales, but there’s also inventory and price changes to consider. So, you will want to be sure when making your buying & selling decisions that you are being well advised by somebody familiar with your local market.

THE INVENTORY STORY

As expected, we are seeing inventory fall. We started the month with 6,053 homes on the market and we finished September with 5,607. We started the month with 7% fewer homes on the market than the year prior, and now we sit with 10% fewer than last year. So, the inventory is falling quicker than in the prior year.

The reason is – as we discussed above – sales are pushing along at a continued mid-summer’s pace. And, as you look at this 15-year CREB graph you’ll see that we are now sitting with the lowest level of total active inventory at this point in the year since 2014.

Just like last month, we did see more listings come to market throughout the month than in 2020, but it’s nowhere near enough to cause an inventory gain.

Here is the breakdown for the various property types:

Detached homes have the lower inventory position, sitting with 19% off last year’s figure.

Semi-Detacheds are next with 13% less.

Row Homes are at 8% less and the Apartments, despite having a great year-over-year sales gain in September, still sit with 5% more inventory than last year.

As I mentioned earlier, the surrounding markets are all acting differently and here is the quick breakdown:

Airdrie saw a net decrease in inventory to 237 from last month, 36% less than a year ago.

Cochrane also saw a net drop, down to 115 active properties, a near 50% drop in inventory from a year ago.

Chestermere only has 86 places on the market – a drop of 29% – and Okotoks sits with 82, a 44% decline.

So, because of the low inventory in Calgary’s satellite markets, they are fully in a seller’s market. Be sure you are aware of this if you are actively buying or selling. Your strategy will need to be specific to your market.

THE PRICING PICTURE

September’s benchmark sales price was $457,900. This represents an 8.6% increase over last year! Continued great news.

Just like last month, we did slide a little from last month, but this is simply what happens seasonally every year as the market slows from its peak spring months.

Here is the breakdown for each property type:

Detached – a 10% increase.

Semi Detached – an 8.4% increase.

Row Homes – a 7% gain.

Apartments – a modest 1% increase.

Here is a graphic that shows how prices have changed, year-over-year, across the various districts in the city.

Again, due to the high number of apartments in the city centre, it is experiencing the lowest overall price gain. But, depending on your property type, you will want to learn the exact specifics for your real estate needs. A detached home in the City Centre will not be experiencing gains as low as those for Apartments. So, please take this as your “high level” viewpoint.

Here are the year-over-year price changes for the Detached markets around Calgary.

From the north you’ll see that Airdrie is seeing a 14% year-over-year price growth, but then if you look south you’ll see High River is sitting with just a 5.7% increase. So again, be very certain you are reviewing data with your Realtor about your local area only.

The high point here for September looks to be Canmore, with a year-over-year gain of 16.4%. Wowza!

SUMMARY

What does all of this really mean for you, anyways? Well, let me show you this little graph…

This graph is showing our overall “Months of Inventory”. What you will see here is that the red trend line, and my added red arrow, are pointing down.

When the months of inventory is dropping it means that the total Pace of Sales is increasing. Right now, based on how sales continue to blister along, and with our inventory dropping quite rapidly, it’s continuing to put Calgary & area into a fast-paced real estate environment.

A seller’s market is typically below a Months of Supply value of 3. As a whole, we’re sitting right now with 2.59 months of supply.

So, it looks as if we will have a very tight Q4 here in 2021.

If you are a buyer, you’ll need to continue to be ready to pull the trigger quickly. If it’s a well-priced home, or even a slightly over-priced home, you could end up in the type of multi-offers situation that we have been dealing with all year.

If you are a seller, don’t get greedy, though. The band of price points before you shoot yourself in foot and end up “out of the market” isn’t too far from “fair market value”. So, keep doing what you’ve done all year – price fair, knowing that he buyers are out there and you will get a good offer soon and be well on your way to your next life plan.

Don’t price fairly and you’ll continue to wait and watch the market push past you.

I hope this information is helpful. All of us at Redline are here for you no matter your home type, location or price range – please reach out to be connected with a specialist for your needs.

September is all about getting back to normal, back to routine, so – as we are doing that – the question on so many people’s minds is: “Did our real estate market settle down in the month of August?

In this market update you’ll learn exactly how the Calgary & surrounding area markets completed their summer months.

August was another stellar month for Calgary & Area real estate. There seems to be no real indication that we will revert back to historical normals just yet. The entire year has exceeded expectations, and it did so once again in the month of August.

THE SALES SUMMARY

August finished with 2151 sales for the month. This was a 37% increase from last year, and also from 2019.

In fact, this was the 3rd best August of all time! Another “podium finish” for 2021. 😀

Looking at this graph from the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) you’ll see just how special the month was when compared to the last 15 years.

Yes, this represents a drop in sales from July, but that’s to be expected due to the seasonal adjustments we are going through.

We continued to record a Sales-per-Day pace of about 70 total properties. This is pretty fantastic!

To put this in a little more perspective, when I look back past the historical highs we experienced earlier in 2021, August 2021 sold more homes than any month in 2020, more than any month in 2019, more than any month in 2018, 2017, 2016 and I had to roll the data back all the way to June 2015 to find a month that beat this month’s total sales.

Yup, despite us slowing down a bit from July, we are still experiencing an incredible pace in relation to most of the last 6 years.

So, it’s safe to say SALES are still ripping & roaring.

As you’d expect the various property types are acting a little differently, but all positively.

Detached homes had a 32% increase in year-over-year sales.
Apartments experienced a 49% increase – Wow!
Semi-Detached had a 25% increase.
And Row homes experienced a whopping 59% year-over-year increase.

Calgary is our major market centre and it contributed to 74% of all sales in August, but this isn’t all our region is about – not by a long shot. This month I feel compelled to speak to the positive stories happening in our surrounding regions, as well.

Airdrie is our 2nd busiest market centre. It achieved 183 sales in August, which was a 24% increase in sales year-over-year.

Cochrane had 90 sales (12% year-over-year increase) and Okotoks had 65 sales (11% gain year-over-year).

It’s pure positivity at every corner of the region!

THE INVENTORY STORY

We started the month of August with 6,680 homes on the market, and as we finished the month the active total was reduced to 6,053. That is a significant decline.

We currently sit with 7% less inventory than we did last year. Which is less than 2019, and much less than our recent August peak in 2018.

And as you look at this 15-year CREB graph, you’ll see that those numbers remain in line with the historical average. There’s certainly not “lots” on the market, but we’re not in a position of scarcity either.

We ended up listing nearly 10% more homes on the market than last year, totalling 2,822 new listings in August. But, despite that, we saw a significant 600-home decline due to the continued pace of sales, and at this time of the year we do naturally see more homeowners take their “non-selling” homes off the market for the time being.

Detached homes are sitting with 14% less inventory year-over-year.
Semi-Detached are at 10% less.
Row homes have 5% less inventory than this time last year.
Apartments continue to be the only product type with more, with 7% more active inventory than at this same point last year.

Now, the story is a little different in our surrounding markets. Their total active inventory is much lower than it was at this point last year.

Airdrie currently only has 260 homes on the market – 36% less than the year prior.
Cochrane has 154 homes on the market (39% less).
And Okotoks has only 85 available homes, a whopping 48% less than this time last year.

So, it’s fair to say that if you are trading real estate in these regions, things may be feeling even tighter than in metro Calgary.

THE PRICING PICTURE

The average benchmark sale price in the month of August was $459,600.

This is a year-over-year increase of 9.4%. So, yes, this remains a great news story for Calgarians.

Now, we did drop slightly from our year’s peak, recorded last month, of $460,100, but that’s nothing to worry about. It’s natural as we roll out of the peak selling months to start recording a slight easing in benchmark sales price. I expect a month-over-month drop each month now till we cross through into next year’s selling season. It’s all part of the real estate cycle of life.

Here is the breakdown for each property type:

Detached – 10.6% increase.
Semi Detached – 9.9% increase.
Row Homes – an 8% gain.
Apartments – a modest 2.3% increase.

Here is a graph that shows how this has changed across the various districts in the city.

Again, all GREEN arrows, all positive signs, and it’s quite consistent. The lowest performing district is the CITY CENTRE district, and that’s because it has the highest concentration of apartments and, as I just mentioned, the Apartment segment has the lowest year-over-year price gain.

CREB also comes out with a graph that is similar to this, showing how the “Detached only” price changes have occurred in the various surrounding areas. Let me show you that here, as well.

What you’ll likely notice is that the year-over-year price gains are all in the double digits. This just shows the continued strength of the detached market, not only in Calgary, but also in a big way all around our great city! Very positive and inspiring news for all!

When talking about overall benchmark price, another common question we get as Realtors is
“What sort of a deal can I expect in today’s market?”

This is certainly impossible to predict, as every area, price range, property type and – of course – seller will treat an offer differently, but right now as a whole we saw a 97.8% final sales price to current list price ratio.

This is about the same as we had last month.

This simply means that it’s a safe assumption that a new home to market, priced fairly, will realize a sale price that’s just a few percentage points shy of their list price.

So, things remain pretty tight. And this is further emphasized in the continued strength of another very important metric – the “Sales-to-New-Listing Ratio”.

This continues to be over 75% as a city-wide average. With some property types, like detached & row homes, being well over 80%, it even further demonstrates the strength and relative “tightness” of our end-of-summer market.

Earlier I mentioned the inventory being quite low in our surrounding communities, but we are also seeing very high sales-to-listing ratios around Calgary, too.

Regions like Foothills are selling 100% of the homes that are hitting the market, while areas like Airdrie, Chestermere & Rockyview County are all selling all in the high 80 percentiles.

So, the story here – even though summer is over and the main selling season is behind us – is that our real estate market remains a force to be reckoned with.

Homes will hit the market and sell in very short order in most parts of the CREB region.

This has us, as a whole, with a current “Days on Market” average of 42. That’s a full 20% faster than at this time last year.

SUMMARY

If you wanted things to slow down… well, they aren’t. There remains massive interest from citizens of our region to trade up, trade down, trade laterally and to continue investing in real estate.

And there continues to be consistent outside-our-market investment interest from the GTA, Greater Vancouver and beyond.

Calgary remains one of the most affordable metropolitan centres in all of North America and we are finally seeing the long-term confidence we’ve always believed our market deserves.

I expect us to continue having a tremendous year in Calgary & Area real estate.

So, if you need any advice about your specific situation, please reach out so we can connect you with one of our 85+ incredible realtors at Redline.

Thank you following us through another Calgary Real Estate Market Update Video, brought to you by Redline Real Estate Group.